The fare freeze is putting
money in your pocket. How much?
DfT froze regulated UK rail fares between March 2026 and March 2027, the first freeze since 1995. The headlines quoted “average commuter saves £300” without telling you what that means for your fare on your route. This calculator does. Pick your ticket type, set the counterfactual increase you would have paid, and see your actual saving, plus what 5 years of frozen fares would save if it became permanent.
your ticket type
your ticket details
Prefill an annual season by route (optional)
Verified June 2026 annual season fares (rail only, to London Terminals). Or enter any fare below.
Price per year (£)
tickets / year
Counterfactual fare increase
The increase fares would have had if the freeze hadn't happened. Default is 5.8% - the July 2025 RPI (4.8%) plus 1% formula that would have set the 2026 rise.
How the calculation works: the freeze fixed regulated fares at the March 2025 level until March 2027. Without the freeze, the standard formula would have pushed prices up. The annual saving = (counterfactual price − actual price) × your ticket count.
your annual saving · 2026-27
£319
the fare freeze keeps in your pocket this year
On £5,500 of actual fare spend, vs £5,819 under 5.8% increase
Per-year saving
£319.00
saved each time
Annual saving
£319
this year
5-yr compound
£5,172
if freeze permanent
fare breakdown
The Department for Transport froze regulated rail fares in England from March 2026 to March 2027, the first freeze in 30 years. Regulated fares = season tickets and most off-peak returns on long-distance routes. Unregulated fares (Anytime, some Advance) can still change. Source: DfT fare regulation announcement, 2025.
the bigger picture
The freeze is technically a one-year decision. The compounded effect lasts forever.
Each year of formula-driven fare increase compounds the next year's baseline. Stopping the increase for one year doesn't just save the 5.8%, it permanently lowers the trajectory by 5.8%. From the freeze point forward, every subsequent year's formula increase is calculated on the frozen base, not the counterfactual.
5.8%
2026 RPI+1% formula
What you would have paid
The 2026 increase would have been July 2025 RPI (4.8%) plus 1 percentage point on regulated fares; the formula has averaged around 5-6% over the last decade.
0%
2026/27 freeze
What you're actually paying
Regulated fares held at March 2025 prices for the full 2026/27 fare year, the first freeze since 1995.
5.8%
permanent step-down
What the freeze locks in
Even if formula resumes in March 2027, every future year's baseline is now 5.8% lower than it would have been. The gap compounds.
the government's own examples
What the freeze saves on real routes
When it announced the freeze, the Department for Transport gave three worked examples, each for a commuter travelling three days a week on a flexi season ticket. These are the figures behind the “average commuter saves £300” headline.
£315
saved a year
Milton Keynes to London
flexi season, 3 days a week
£173
saved a year
Woking to London
flexi season, 3 days a week
£57
saved a year
Bradford to Leeds
flexi season, 3 days a week
Your own saving is usually larger on a full annual season ticket or a pricier route: an annual season holder at £5,500 avoids about £319 in the first year alone. Set your ticket type and route price in the calculator above to see your figure.
Source: Department for Transport fare freeze announcement, November 2025 (2025 Autumn Budget). Aggregate saving of around £600 million across 2026/27.
Methodology
The calculator compares two scenarios:
- Actual: your ticket price at the March 2025 / March 2026 frozen level.
- Counterfactual: your ticket price multiplied by (1 + counterfactual_pct/100), where the default counterfactual is 5.8% (July 2025 RPI of 4.8% plus 1 percentage point, the formula that would have set the 2026 rise).
Annual saving = (counterfactual price − actual price) × number of tickets per year. 5-year compound assumes the freeze stays in place for five years and the counterfactual compounds annually, each year's counterfactual fare = current_fare × (1 + counterfactual_pct)^year, summed across the 5-year window.
Railcard stacking applies a 30% discount on the actual ticket price (typical 1/3-off discount), less the £35 annual railcard cost. Most off-peak fares qualify; check operator rules for peak-time restrictions.
Source: DfT regulated fare freeze announcement (2025 Autumn Budget). Regulated fares = season tickets + most off-peak returns on long-distance routes + Anytime singles on commuter routes (~45% of UK rail fare revenue by value). Unregulated fares unaffected. The 5-year compound projection is illustrative, DfT has only committed to a 1-year freeze; subsequent fare years revert to formula-driven increases unless renewed.